Recent Work
Some recent articles, affidavits and presentations can be downloaded here:
Resource Adequacy, Planning Reserve Margins, and the “One Day in Ten Years” resource adequacy criterion:
Reconsidering Resource Adequacy (Part 1): Has the One-Day-in-Ten-Years Criterion Outlived Its Usefulness? Public Utilities Fortnightly, April 2010. Evaluates the widely-used resource adequacy criterion, finding that it is overly conservative.
Reconsidering Resource Adequacy (Part 2): Capacity Planning for the Smart Grid, Public Utilities Fortnightly, May 2010. Suggests how resource adequacy planning should be adapted as peak loads become more price-responsive.
One Day in Ten Years? Resource Adequacy for the Smart Grid (November 2009). Longer paper on the “one day in ten years” reliability criterion and how it may need to be adapted for the smart grid (the basis for the two Public Utilities Fortnightly articles).
Comments on Reliability Standard BAL-502-RFC-02 in FERC docket no. RM10-10 (December 2010). Comments on the “one day in ten years” criterion and approaches to calculating planning reserve margins.
Reliability and Economics; Separate Realities? presentation to Harvard Electricity Policy Group, December 1, 2011.
Electricity Peak Load and Transmission Need Forecasting:
Testimony in PATH transmission line proceeding in Virginia (December 2009). Discusses PJM’s peak load forecasting and methods for analysis of transmission and local capacity requirements.
RTO Forward Capacity Markets:
Forward Capacity Market CONEfusion, June 2010 (earlier draft of article published in Electricity Journal, November 2010). Describes why forward capacity markets have not performed as expected and proposes changes to better align expectations and performance.
Comments on PJM’s Reliability Pricing Model and related issues for Maryland Public Service Commission (October 2010). Explains that PJM’s RPM capacity market has been successful as a capacity spot market but has not attracted new long-term resources; discusses the reasons for recent capacity prices and price volatility.
Affidavit on PJM’s Minimum Offer Price Rule in FERC docket no. ER11-2875. Addresses the potential impact of policies to impose “minimum offer prices” on new resources offering into PJM’s RPM capacity market.
Testimony on ISO New England’s Forward Capacity Market (FCM) in FERC docket no. ER10-787: Testimony on the proposed Alternative Price Rule and zonal pricing (FCM March 2010); further testimony on the lack of evidence that zonal capacity pricing influences the location of new entry, and the market power incentives created by zonal capacity markets (FCM July 2010); further testimony critiquing ISO New England’s proposed two-tier capacity pricing approach (FCM September 2010).
Use of Energy Market Models to Evaluate Public Policy Issues:
Comments on the NARUC-Initiated Report: Analysis of the Social, Economic and Environmental Effects of Maintaining Oil and Gas Exploration Moratoria On and Beneath Federal Lands (June 2010). Critique of the modeling, finding that it overstated the potential impact of relaxing the moratoria.
After the Gas Bubble: An Economic Evaluation of the Recent National Petroleum Council Study, with K. Costello and H. Huntington, earlier version of paper published in Energy Journal Vol. 26 No. 2 (2005). Critique of the modeling, finding that it overstated the potential impact of measures to expand supply or reduce demand.
Demand Response and Shorter-Term Operations:
Affidavit on PJM’s “DR Saturation” filing in FERC docket no. ER11-2288 (December 2010). Evaluation of the proposed limits on demand response products, concluding that they overly restrict demand response.
Affidavit on PJM’s shortage pricing proposal in FERC docket no. ER09-1063 (July 2010). Critique and a proposed alternative approach.
For copies of other articles, reports, presentations, or testimony listed in James Wilson’s CV please Contact Us
Wilson Energy Economics
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Bethesda, Maryland 20814
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